Tweed Agriculture at the Crossroads Brian Keating CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems 306 Carmody Rd, St Lucia, 4067, QLD brian.keating@csiro. Outline of talk presented at Kingscliff Amenities Hall, 15th February 2004 Summary. The talk will explore the forces shaping Australia's rural landscapes, with a particular focus on the pressures in coastal regions experiencing rapid economic growth and demographic change. The issues facing agriculture in the Tweed will be discussed in the context of other regions along the north-eastern seaboard, in particular regions where the sugar industry features prominently in the rural landscape. Insights from rural landscape research in Europe elsewhere in Australia will be explored The talk will develop the argument for a broader, more diversified view of the role agriculture might play in future landscapes. In this view, the focus of agriculture might shift rom the production of a small number of major commodities to be traded globally to one of agriculture providing a diverse range of goods and services to local ecosystems and communities. Background Rural lands in the coastal hinterlands of Australia's eastern seaboard have been traditionally used for agriculture or been protected as part of the national estate in national parks, state forests or other forms of conservation zones. These regions are not only scenically attractive to many Australians, they contain some of our most biodiversity rich plant and animal communities, albeit often as fragments of remnant forest in a sea of agriculture. Urban pressures on these lands has in the past been concentrated around a relatively small number of large cities and major towns and a narrow coastal or "beachfront" strip. The Gold Coast is an exception to this generalisation - over the last 40 years we have seen a dramatic and comprehensive transformation of a rural landscape to an urban landscape. Still, many other regions have retained a rural character with more focused and restrained urban development, often associated with tourism or retirement living. There are clear signals that the rural landscapes of coastal shires are coming under pressures that are an order of magnitude greater than we have seen since agriculture was first established in these regions. There are two major drivers shaping the future of these landscapes, namely the economic viability of traditional agricultural activities and sociodemographic trends driving the "big shift" to coastal living. Traditional agricultural industries (e.g., dairy, sugar, horticulture) are under sustained economic pressure. In some cases and in some regions, this is raising the prospect of the complete collapse of an industry that was the predominant user of the rural landscape. We have seen this happen in the dairy industry and it is now happening in some parts of the sugar industry (at least in Qld). At the same time as agriculture is at risk of vacating the rural landscape of Australia's coastal regions, social and demographic forces are combining to produce unprecedented population pressures on these regions. This "seachange" phenomenon is fuelled by the baby boomer "bulge" in Australia's demographics. Those born between 1946 and 1960 have started to retire from full-time work and will continue to retire in increasing numbers for another 10 - 20 years. Australia's sustained economic growth over the last 15 years and stellar growth in property prices in the big cities is making this demographic increasingly mobile and they have a love affair with coastal regions. Tweed agriculture today Agriculture in the Tweed is dominated by sugar and horticultural production activities, which together make up about 70% of the economic output from agriculture. These industries make use of prime agricultural land, largely on the Tweed River floodplain (sugar) and on the basaltic soils in places like Cudgen and Duranbah (fruit and vegetables). Approximately 70% of land is zoned "rural" and a further 10% zoned for environmental protection. The majority of the economic product from agriculture (approx 70%) comes from a small fraction of the land (i.e. the 10% or so of the land that is classed as prime agricultural and used for sugar and horticulture.) Whilst agriculture has a long and proud history in the shire, its contribution now to overall economic activity is small and declining. The recent SKM study for Tweed Economic Development Corporation (TEDC) [shows] approximately 5% of the regional economic activity and regional employment relates directly to agriculture. Yet agriculture is the dominant manager of the bulk of the rural landscape. This rural landscape provides much of the greenspace between the urban centres, provides the setting for the expanding tourist industry and delivers a host of ecosystem services (more specifically agri-ecosystem services) to the wider economy and community. Tweed rural landscapes (and the planners and wider community) in 2004 are faced with three linked challenges. Firstly how to respond to the development pressures associated with rapid and sustained population growth. Secondly, what role will agriculture have in future rural landscapes given the economic pressures on traditional agricultural industries and the limited scope to respond to these pressures by "scaling up" (i.e. the get big or get out approach which characterises production agriculture in the broadacre environments). High land price's already limit the scope for farm amalgamations to achieve economies of scale in response the cost-price pressures. Thirdly, how are the rich natural values of this region to be protected or enhanced in this complex dynamic of agriculture in transition and rapidly growing populations (and associated with such populations, rapidly growing service industries. Rural landscapes under transition Studies of rural landscapes elsewhere in Australia and in Europe can provide insights into what might lie ahead for the Tweed and what alternative pathways the Tweed community may choose to follow. Significant aspects of the Australian work on this topic have been stimulated by the National land and Water Resources Audit and the work of Neil Barr on the social and economic forces acting in rural Australia is particularly significant. The talk will also draw upon insights coming from Geoff McDonald (CSIRO/UQ) and John Holmes (UQ). There are three functions invariably identified with rural landscapes, namely; • Production, e.g., the production of agricultural products for trade • Consumption, e.g., the consumption of rural assets via activities such as rural living, farm tourism, eco-tourism, life-style farming etc. • Conservation, e.g. protection of biological or social diversity\ Increasingly we are seeing a shift from "production" aspects or rural landscapes to "consumption" (and conservation) aspects. This shift is very strong in western Europe where reference is often made to a "Post-Productivist Transition" or alternatively, a "Multi-functional Rural Transition". Multifunctionality refers to the concept that rural landscapes serve a range of functions, such as; production activity, amenity value, living opportunities, cultural or heritage value and conservation of biological or social diversity. Rural futures Neil Barr has examined bio-physical, economic and social data for Australia's rural regions and has identifies three "futures" that are appearing to greater or lessor degrees, within and between regions. These are; • Traditional Agricultural Future • Rural Amenity Future • Small Farm Future This typology of rural futures appears relevant to the "crossroads" Tweed agriculture now finds itself. Key questions to be raised in this talk include; • can the traditional agriculture pathway be followed given the constraints on scale of operation imposed by geography and land values? • what would be gained and what would be lost if the shire invested in a rural amenity future - that is a future dominated by rural living disassociated from agriculture? • can a new rural mosaic be pursued that builds on a "small farm future", retains a strong connection to agricultural activity, but builds on a diversified economic base that includes significant off-farm income? • what would be a desirable balance between these alternative pathways and in what regions within the shire are they best suited? • what planning, policy and institutional developments would assist in the pursuit of an appropriate mix of these rural futures? • can we do more to improve the partnerships between "knowledge agencies" (such as Unis, CRC, State agencies and CSIRO) and local government to better support sustainable regions and communities? Conclusion Tweed agriculture is at a crossroads. Economic forces will continually provide a challenge to its viability and development pressures could see it disappear from view unless great care is taken in setting the directions for regional development. My contention is that agriculture has an important place to play in the future of rural landscapes and communities in the Tweed, however this role may end up being quite different to the traditional agricultural production activity that we have seen in the past. If we are skilful we can create the conditions for a "new rural mosaic" to evolve. In this mosaic, a diverse set of rural production and consumption activities would align with the social and demographic forces now at play. New niche industries, diversified traditional industries, off-farm incomes, farm based tourism, lifestyle farming and local value adding enterprises, markets for agroecosystem services and biodiversity protection and enhancement would come together to provide an alternative future to the "get big or get out" phenomena that characterised much of Australia's traditional agricultural industries and regions.